Poland vs Tunisia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
84.4%
Win probability
3.25
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.5%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.7%
7-0
1.3%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.8%
6-0
2.9%
7-1
1%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
4.1%
5-0
5.4%
6-1
2.3%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
8.1%
4-0
8.3%
5-1
4.2%
6-2
0.9%
7-3
0.1%
+4
13.4%
3-0
10.2%
4-1
6.4%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.5%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.3%
1-0
5.8%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
16.9%
10.1%
Draw
0-0
1.8%
1-1
4.5%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
10.1%
5.5%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
1.4%
1-2
1.7%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
4%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 1978 |
BRD
0 - 0
POL
75%
14%
11%
|
87 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1978 |
POL
1 - 0
BGR
75%
17%
9%
|
87 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1978 |
POL
3 - 0
IRL
80%
14%
6%
|
87 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1978 |
POL
5 - 2
GRC
80%
14%
6%
|
86 | 71 | 15 | +1 |
| 22 Mar. 1978 |
LUX
1 - 3
POL
12%
16%
72%
|
86 | 42 | 44 | 0 |
Matches
Tunisia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jun. 1978 |
TUN
3 - 1
MEX
46%
25%
29%
|
71 | 83 | 12 | 0 |
| 19 May. 1978 |
FRA
2 - 0
TUN
78%
15%
8%
|
72 | 85 | 13 | -1 |
| 05 Apr. 1978 |
TUN
0 - 4
NED
21%
24%
55%
|
72 | 87 | 15 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 1978 |
NGA
2 - 0
TUN
65%
20%
15%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | -1 |
| 14 Mar. 1978 |
GHA
1 - 0
TUN
64%
20%
16%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | -1 |