Poland vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.6%
Win probability
2.85
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.4%
5-0
3.5%
6-1
1.6%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.4%
4-0
6.2%
5-1
3.3%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.4%
3-0
8.7%
4-1
5.8%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.4%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.7%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.9%
13.8%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
6.1%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
13.8%
9.6%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
6.6%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jun. 1978 |
POL
1 - 0
TUN
84%
10%
6%
|
87 | 72 | 15 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 1978 |
BRD
0 - 0
POL
75%
14%
11%
|
87 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1978 |
POL
1 - 0
BGR
75%
17%
9%
|
87 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1978 |
POL
3 - 0
IRL
80%
14%
6%
|
87 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1978 |
POL
5 - 2
GRC
80%
14%
6%
|
86 | 71 | 15 | +1 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jun. 1978 |
BRD
6 - 0
MEX
83%
11%
7%
|
82 | 92 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 1978 |
TUN
3 - 1
MEX
46%
25%
29%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | -1 |
| 03 May. 1978 |
FIN
0 - 1
MEX
20%
21%
60%
|
83 | 53 | 30 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1978 |
ESP
2 - 0
MEX
71%
19%
10%
|
83 | 89 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1978 |
MEX
0 - 1
PER
64%
22%
14%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |