Poland vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.3%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1%
3-0
2%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.4%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
3.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
8.9%
1-0
7%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.7%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
44.4%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.6%
0-2
6.9%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.4%
0-3
3.7%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.2%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 1965 |
BEL
0 - 0
POL
62%
19%
19%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 1964 |
IRL
3 - 2
POL
59%
20%
21%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 1964 |
SWE
3 - 3
POL
83%
11%
7%
|
74 | 87 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1964 |
TUR
2 - 3
POL
51%
23%
27%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 1964 |
POL
2 - 1
CSK
42%
23%
35%
|
73 | 84 | 11 | +1 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar. 1965 |
GER
1 - 1
ITA
53%
22%
25%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 1964 |
ITA
3 - 1
DEN
79%
13%
8%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | +1 |
| 04 Nov. 1964 |
ITA
6 - 1
FIN
84%
11%
5%
|
88 | 47 | 41 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 1964 |
POL
0 - 1
ITA
30%
24%
46%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 10 May. 1964 |
SUI
1 - 3
ITA
29%
24%
48%
|
88 | 65 | 23 | 0 |