Poland vs Bulgaria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.6%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.5%
4-0
6.1%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.1%
3-0
10.7%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
15.2%
2-0
14%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.2%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
16.6%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
16.6%
8.8%
Win probability
0.64
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
2.5%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.6%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 1978 |
POL
3 - 0
IRL
80%
14%
6%
|
86 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1978 |
POL
5 - 2
GRC
80%
14%
6%
|
86 | 71 | 15 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 1978 |
LUX
1 - 3
POL
12%
16%
72%
|
86 | 43 | 43 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 1977 |
POL
2 - 1
SWE
61%
22%
17%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 1977 |
POL
1 - 1
POR
66%
21%
14%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Bulgaria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 1978 |
CSK
0 - 0
BGR
74%
17%
9%
|
80 | 87 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 1978 |
MEX
3 - 0
BGR
58%
24%
18%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | -1 |
| 01 Apr. 1978 |
PER
1 - 1
BGR
49%
24%
27%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 1978 |
ARG
3 - 1
BGR
74%
18%
8%
|
81 | 89 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1978 |
SCO
2 - 1
BGR
68%
20%
11%
|
81 | 87 | 6 | 0 |