Poland vs Bulgaria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.5%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.5%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.6%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.7%
20.9%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 1965 |
POL
0 - 0
ITA
31%
24%
44%
|
74 | 89 | 15 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 1965 |
BEL
0 - 0
POL
62%
19%
19%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 1964 |
IRL
3 - 2
POL
59%
20%
21%
|
74 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 1964 |
SWE
3 - 3
POL
83%
11%
7%
|
74 | 87 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1964 |
TUR
2 - 3
POL
51%
23%
27%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Bulgaria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May. 1965 |
BGR
4 - 1
TUR
51%
22%
28%
|
75 | 71 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1965 |
GRC
1 - 2
BGR
47%
22%
31%
|
74 | 68 | 6 | +1 |
| 20 Dec. 1964 |
TUR
0 - 0
BGR
53%
23%
25%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 1964 |
BGR
0 - 0
SUN
46%
24%
29%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 May. 1964 |
BGR
0 - 1
ROU
52%
23%
25%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | -1 |