Poland vs Belgium analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.1%
Win probability
2.98
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
0.1%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.3%
5-0
2.7%
6-1
1.7%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
5%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
3.5%
6-2
1.2%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
9.4%
3-0
6%
4-1
5.9%
5-2
2.3%
6-3
0.5%
7-4
0.1%
+3
14.8%
2-0
6%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
3.9%
5-3
1%
6-4
0.2%
7-5
<0%
+2
19%
1-0
4%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
5.2%
4-3
1.7%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.3%
14.9%
Draw
0-0
1.3%
1-1
5.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
2.3%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
14.9%
14%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
1.8%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
8.5%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 1939 |
FRA
4 - 0
POL
51%
20%
28%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 1938 |
IRL
3 - 2
POL
58%
19%
23%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | -1 |
| 23 Oct. 1938 |
POL
2 - 2
NOR
53%
20%
27%
|
71 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1938 |
LVA
2 - 1
POL
44%
22%
35%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | -1 |
| 25 Sep. 1938 |
POL
4 - 4
YUG
70%
16%
15%
|
71 | 63 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Belgium
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 1939 |
BEL
1 - 3
FRA
47%
20%
33%
|
60 | 68 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1939 |
BEL
1 - 2
SUI
53%
20%
27%
|
61 | 69 | 8 | -1 |
| 23 Apr. 1939 |
NED
3 - 2
BEL
75%
14%
12%
|
61 | 76 | 15 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 1939 |
BEL
5 - 4
NED
36%
21%
43%
|
60 | 77 | 17 | +1 |
| 29 Jan. 1939 |
BEL
1 - 4
GER
33%
22%
46%
|
61 | 82 | 21 | -1 |