New Caledonia vs Papua New Guinea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.5%
Win probability
2.48
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.7%
5-0
3.1%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.2%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
9%
3-0
10.2%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.8%
2-0
12.3%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.8%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
15.4%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.4%
9%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
6.6%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-14%
-14%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
New Caledonia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
SOL
1 - 0
NCL
31%
23%
46%
|
53 | 50 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2023 |
PNG
1 - 3
NCL
19%
20%
62%
|
52 | 40 | 12 | +1 |
| 08 Oct. 2023 |
NCL
4 - 0
VAN
51%
22%
27%
|
51 | 47 | 4 | +1 |
| 24 Mar. 2023 |
TAH
2 - 1
NCL
25%
22%
53%
|
52 | 45 | 7 | -1 |
| 21 Mar. 2023 |
TAH
0 - 2
NCL
28%
23%
49%
|
52 | 47 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Papua New Guinea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jun. 2024 |
SAM
1 - 2
PNG
38%
24%
38%
|
35 | 33 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2024 |
PNG
1 - 1
TAH
19%
22%
59%
|
34 | 47 | 13 | +1 |
| 16 Jun. 2024 |
PNG
1 - 5
FIJ
19%
23%
59%
|
36 | 50 | 14 | -2 |
| 25 Mar. 2024 |
CTA
4 - 0
PNG
43%
24%
34%
|
37 | 42 | 5 | -1 |
| 22 Mar. 2024 |
LKA
0 - 0
PNG
25%
20%
55%
|
38 | 27 | 11 | -1 |