New Caledonia vs Samoa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
83.7%
Win probability
2.78
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.9%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.1%
6-0
2.3%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.8%
5-0
5%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.1%
+5
6.4%
4-0
9%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
12%
3-0
13%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
18.6%
2-0
14%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.4%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.8%
11.5%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
5.4%
2-2
2%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
11.5%
4.8%
Win probability
0.54
Expected goals
0-1
2%
1-2
1.5%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
3.8%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0%
-2
0.8%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-16%
-52%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
New Caledonia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jun. 2012 |
TAH
4 - 3
NCL
42%
25%
33%
|
46 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2012 |
VAN
2 - 5
NCL
38%
25%
37%
|
45 | 44 | 1 | +1 |
| 07 May. 2011 |
NCL
1 - 3
REU
63%
20%
17%
|
46 | 39 | 7 | -1 |
| 04 May. 2011 |
NCL
2 - 4
REU
66%
19%
15%
|
47 | 37 | 10 | -1 |
| 06 Apr. 2011 |
TAH
1 - 0
NCL
39%
25%
36%
|
48 | 45 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Samoa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jun. 2012 |
VAN
5 - 0
SAM
75%
16%
9%
|
27 | 42 | 15 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2012 |
SAM
1 - 10
TAH
12%
20%
68%
|
30 | 46 | 16 | -3 |
| 27 Nov. 2011 |
SAM
1 - 0
ASA
90%
8%
2%
|
31 | 8 | 23 | -1 |
| 25 Nov. 2011 |
SAM
1 - 1
TON
77%
15%
8%
|
31 | 18 | 13 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2011 |
COK
2 - 3
SAM
39%
24%
36%
|
30 | 28 | 2 | +1 |