Norway vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
24.3%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.4%
2-0
4.3%
3-1
1.3%
4-2
0.1%
+2
5.7%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
5%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
16.9%
30.5%
Draw
0-0
14.4%
1-1
13%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
30.5%
45.2%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
16.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
25.6%
0-2
9.8%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
13.1%
0-3
3.8%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
-3
4.8%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Norway
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar. 1987 |
POL
4 - 1
NOR
75%
17%
8%
|
75 | 87 | 12 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 1986 |
SUN
4 - 0
NOR
80%
15%
5%
|
75 | 93 | 18 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 1986 |
NOR
0 - 0
DDR
32%
29%
40%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | +1 |
| 09 Sep. 1986 |
NOR
0 - 0
HUN
25%
27%
48%
|
74 | 90 | 16 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 1986 |
NOR
2 - 2
ROU
39%
28%
33%
|
74 | 85 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 1987 |
BRD
0 - 0
ITA
67%
20%
13%
|
92 | 94 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1987 |
ITA
2 - 0
ISL
82%
13%
5%
|
92 | 59 | 33 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 1987 |
DDR
0 - 0
ITA
45%
28%
28%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 1987 |
ITA
1 - 0
POR
70%
19%
11%
|
91 | 85 | 6 | +1 |
| 14 Feb. 1987 |
POR
0 - 1
ITA
35%
30%
35%
|
91 | 85 | 6 | 0 |