Norway vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.1%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.6%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
6.6%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.2%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.3%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
22.6%
33.3%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
17.4%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
9.7%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
4.2%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Norway
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 May. 1937 |
NOR
0 - 6
ENG
42%
21%
37%
|
75 | 83 | 8 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1936 |
NED
3 - 3
NOR
62%
18%
20%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1936 |
NOR
3 - 3
DEN
56%
20%
24%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 1936 |
NOR
0 - 2
FIN
79%
12%
9%
|
76 | 59 | 17 | -1 |
| 13 Aug. 1936 |
NOR
3 - 2
POL
61%
18%
21%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 May. 1937 |
CSK
0 - 1
ITA
53%
21%
26%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1937 |
ITA
2 - 0
HUN
65%
17%
18%
|
86 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1937 |
AUT
2 - 0
ITA
58%
20%
23%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 1936 |
ITA
2 - 0
CSK
71%
16%
14%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 1936 |
GER
2 - 2
ITA
53%
21%
26%
|
86 | 80 | 6 | 0 |