Mexico vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.6%
Win probability
1.99
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.8%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.4%
4-0
5%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
6.2%
3-0
10%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.2%
2-0
15%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.8%
1-0
15.1%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
+1
25.9%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
19.5%
10%
Win probability
0.59
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0%
-1
7.6%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 2018 |
MEX
0 - 1
CRO
51%
25%
24%
|
91 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2018 |
MEX
3 - 0
ISL
73%
18%
9%
|
91 | 82 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2018 |
MEX
1 - 0
BIH
69%
20%
11%
|
91 | 83 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2017 |
POL
0 - 1
MEX
37%
26%
38%
|
91 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2017 |
BEL
3 - 3
MEX
52%
23%
24%
|
91 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov. 2017 |
WAL
1 - 1
PAN
47%
27%
26%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2017 |
FRA
2 - 0
WAL
82%
14%
5%
|
83 | 94 | 11 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2017 |
WAL
0 - 1
IRL
35%
28%
37%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | -1 |
| 06 Oct. 2017 |
GEO
0 - 1
WAL
29%
28%
43%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2017 |
MDA
0 - 2
WAL
16%
24%
60%
|
84 | 60 | 24 | 0 |