Mexico vs USA analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
82.9%
Win probability
3.07
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.5%
7-0
1.1%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.5%
6-0
2.5%
7-1
0.8%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.5%
5-0
5%
6-1
1.9%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
7.2%
4-0
8.1%
5-1
3.7%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
12.6%
3-0
10.6%
4-1
6.1%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.2%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.9%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.1%
11%
Draw
0-0
2.2%
1-1
5.1%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
11%
6%
Win probability
0.75
Expected goals
0-1
1.6%
1-2
1.9%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
4.4%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.3%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 1975 |
MEX
7 - 0
CRC
44%
27%
30%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1974 |
USA
0 - 1
MEX
24%
22%
54%
|
82 | 61 | 21 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 1974 |
MEX
3 - 1
USA
80%
13%
8%
|
82 | 62 | 20 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 1974 |
BRA
1 - 1
MEX
80%
14%
6%
|
82 | 92 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1973 |
MEX
2 - 0
USA
76%
14%
10%
|
81 | 64 | 17 | +1 |
Matches
USA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug. 1975 |
USA
1 - 3
CRC
15%
18%
67%
|
60 | 84 | 24 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 1975 |
USA
0 - 4
POL
28%
26%
47%
|
61 | 87 | 26 | -1 |
| 26 Mar. 1975 |
POL
7 - 0
USA
83%
12%
5%
|
61 | 86 | 25 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1974 |
USA
0 - 1
MEX
24%
22%
54%
|
61 | 82 | 21 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 1974 |
MEX
3 - 1
USA
80%
13%
8%
|
62 | 82 | 20 | -1 |