Mexico vs USA analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.7%
Win probability
2.87
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.6%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.4%
5-0
3.4%
6-1
1.6%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.4%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
3.4%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.2%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
5.9%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.1%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.4%
1-0
6%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.8%
14%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
6%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
14%
10.3%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
3%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
6.9%
0-2
1%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 1973 |
MEX
1 - 2
CHI
50%
24%
27%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 1973 |
MEX
1 - 2
POL
44%
27%
29%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 1973 |
MEX
0 - 1
POL
45%
26%
28%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 1973 |
MEX
2 - 0
ARG
39%
28%
33%
|
81 | 88 | 7 | +1 |
| 12 Oct. 1972 |
MEX
3 - 0
CRC
40%
26%
34%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
USA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Sep. 1973 |
USA
1 - 0
BMU
89%
8%
3%
|
64 | 42 | 22 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 1973 |
USA
1 - 0
POL
30%
25%
45%
|
63 | 85 | 22 | +1 |
| 10 Aug. 1973 |
USA
0 - 4
POL
31%
25%
44%
|
64 | 85 | 21 | -1 |
| 05 Aug. 1973 |
CAN
0 - 2
USA
60%
18%
22%
|
62 | 68 | 6 | +2 |
| 03 Aug. 1973 |
USA
0 - 1
POL
31%
25%
44%
|
63 | 84 | 21 | -1 |