Mexico vs USA analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.5%
Win probability
2.42
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.7%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.5%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.7%
1-0
5.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
5%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.2%
18.8%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
2.3%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
18.8%
20.7%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
12%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jun. 1936 |
MEX
3 - 1
ECU
64%
18%
18%
|
75 | 71 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1935 |
MEX
2 - 0
CRC
66%
17%
17%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | +1 |
| 01 Apr. 1935 |
MEX
8 - 2
BRA
53%
21%
26%
|
73 | 77 | 4 | +1 |
| 30 Mar. 1935 |
MEX
6 - 1
ECU
57%
20%
23%
|
72 | 74 | 2 | +1 |
| 28 Mar. 1935 |
MEX
5 - 1
GTM
71%
16%
13%
|
71 | 60 | 11 | +1 |
Matches
USA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug. 1936 |
ITA
1 - 0
USA
73%
15%
12%
|
75 | 85 | 10 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1934 |
ITA
7 - 1
USA
70%
16%
14%
|
75 | 83 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 1930 |
BRA
4 - 3
USA
60%
20%
20%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 1930 |
ARG
6 - 1
USA
58%
22%
20%
|
76 | 85 | 9 | -1 |
| 17 Jul. 1930 |
USA
3 - 0
PAR
66%
18%
16%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |