Mexico vs Spain analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.7%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.1%
+3
3.9%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
3%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
<0%
+2
11%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
+1
22.4%
29.1%
Draw
0-0
11.1%
1-1
13.4%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
29.1%
32.2%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
11.5%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.1%
-1
19.9%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
8.7%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 1981 |
MEX
4 - 0
KOR
49%
28%
24%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 1981 |
MEX
1 - 1
BGR
62%
22%
17%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 1980 |
FIJ
0 - 2
MEX
12%
19%
70%
|
82 | 37 | 45 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 1980 |
AUS
1 - 1
MEX
46%
24%
31%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 1980 |
AUS
2 - 2
MEX
46%
24%
30%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jun. 1981 |
POR
2 - 0
ESP
40%
29%
31%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1981 |
ESP
0 - 3
HUN
47%
26%
27%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | -1 |
| 25 Mar. 1981 |
ENG
1 - 2
ESP
70%
20%
10%
|
88 | 92 | 4 | +1 |
| 18 Feb. 1981 |
ESP
1 - 0
FRA
55%
25%
21%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 1980 |
ESP
1 - 2
POL
52%
25%
23%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |