Mexico vs Brazil analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
20.9%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.3%
2-0
3.3%
3-1
1.5%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.1%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.1%
+1
14.1%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
8.9%
1-1
12%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.5%
53.6%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
0-1
13.9%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
25.5%
0-2
10.8%
1-3
4.8%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16.5%
0-3
5.6%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
7.7%
0-4
2.2%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct. 1975 |
ISR
1 - 0
MEX
41%
25%
34%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 1975 |
MEX
2 - 0
USA
83%
11%
6%
|
82 | 59 | 23 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 1975 |
MEX
7 - 0
CRC
44%
27%
30%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1974 |
USA
0 - 1
MEX
24%
22%
54%
|
81 | 60 | 21 | +1 |
| 05 Sep. 1974 |
MEX
3 - 1
USA
80%
13%
8%
|
81 | 61 | 20 | 0 |
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May. 1976 |
BRA
4 - 1
ITA
59%
24%
17%
|
92 | 91 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 May. 1976 |
BRA
1 - 0
ENG
55%
25%
20%
|
92 | 91 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 May. 1976 |
BRA
2 - 0
ARG
67%
21%
12%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1976 |
BRA
2 - 1
URU
78%
16%
6%
|
92 | 81 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 1976 |
PAR
1 - 1
BRA
19%
25%
56%
|
92 | 78 | 14 | 0 |