Mexico vs West Germany analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
22.5%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.5%
2-0
3.7%
3-1
1.6%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.6%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
5.4%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.1%
+1
15.1%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
9.4%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
26.4%
51.1%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
0-1
13.9%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
25.2%
0-2
10.3%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15.6%
0-3
5.1%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
7%
0-4
1.9%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.4%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May. 1977 |
MEX
2 - 1
PER
60%
22%
19%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 May. 1977 |
MEX
1 - 1
PER
61%
21%
18%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1977 |
MEX
1 - 1
HUN
29%
27%
44%
|
82 | 90 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1977 |
MEX
0 - 1
YUG
38%
27%
36%
|
82 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1977 |
MEX
5 - 1
YUG
35%
27%
38%
|
81 | 87 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
West Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jun. 1977 |
BRA
1 - 1
BRD
52%
25%
23%
|
93 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Jun. 1977 |
URU
0 - 2
BRD
21%
26%
53%
|
92 | 80 | 12 | +1 |
| 05 Jun. 1977 |
ARG
1 - 3
BRD
42%
27%
32%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 1977 |
YUG
1 - 2
BRD
35%
27%
38%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1977 |
FRA
1 - 0
BRD
26%
26%
48%
|
92 | 82 | 10 | 0 |