Japan vs USSR analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23.9%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1.2%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.5%
2-0
4.1%
3-1
1.5%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.8%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
5.4%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
16.2%
28.4%
Draw
0-0
11.5%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
28.4%
47.7%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
15.2%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
25.3%
0-2
10%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
14.3%
0-3
4.4%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
5.7%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Japan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Nov. 1978 |
JPN
1 - 4
SUN
25%
29%
46%
|
65 | 89 | 24 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 1978 |
THA
0 - 4
JPN
43%
27%
31%
|
64 | 54 | 10 | +1 |
| 23 Jul. 1978 |
SGP
2 - 1
JPN
32%
27%
41%
|
64 | 43 | 21 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 1978 |
MAS
4 - 1
JPN
69%
17%
14%
|
65 | 72 | 7 | -1 |
| 19 Jul. 1978 |
KOR
4 - 0
JPN
71%
18%
12%
|
66 | 80 | 14 | -1 |
Matches
USSR
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Nov. 1978 |
JPN
1 - 4
SUN
25%
29%
46%
|
89 | 65 | 24 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 1978 |
HUN
2 - 0
SUN
62%
22%
16%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 1978 |
TUR
0 - 2
SUN
25%
30%
45%
|
89 | 71 | 18 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1978 |
SUN
2 - 0
GRC
81%
14%
5%
|
89 | 71 | 18 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 1978 |
IRN
0 - 1
SUN
24%
27%
49%
|
89 | 78 | 11 | 0 |