Italy vs Venezuela analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.1%
Win probability
2.19
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.9%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.1%
3-0
9.5%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.9%
2-0
13.1%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.4%
1-0
12%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
18.1%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.1%
10.8%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.9%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov. 2023 |
UKR
0 - 0
ITA
20%
24%
56%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2023 |
ITA
5 - 2
MKD
82%
13%
5%
|
92 | 75 | 17 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 2023 |
ENG
3 - 1
ITA
55%
23%
22%
|
92 | 94 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
ITA
4 - 0
MLT
86%
11%
3%
|
92 | 50 | 42 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2023 |
ITA
2 - 1
UKR
62%
21%
17%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Venezuela
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov. 2023 |
PER
1 - 1
VEN
50%
25%
25%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 2023 |
VEN
0 - 0
ECU
35%
26%
39%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 2023 |
VEN
3 - 0
CHI
39%
26%
36%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2023 |
BRA
1 - 1
VEN
87%
10%
3%
|
84 | 97 | 13 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2023 |
VEN
1 - 0
PAR
49%
25%
26%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |