Italy vs Uruguay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.7%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.7%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.8%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.5%
24.9%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.9%
32.4%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.3%
0-2
5%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jun. 2014 |
ITA
0 - 1
CRC
69%
20%
11%
|
92 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 2014 |
ENG
1 - 2
ITA
53%
24%
24%
|
92 | 94 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2014 |
ITA
1 - 1
LUX
85%
12%
3%
|
92 | 42 | 50 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2014 |
ITA
0 - 0
IRL
64%
22%
14%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2014 |
ESP
1 - 0
ITA
71%
19%
11%
|
93 | 97 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jun. 2014 |
URU
2 - 1
ENG
26%
23%
51%
|
90 | 93 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 2014 |
URU
1 - 3
CRC
71%
18%
11%
|
91 | 84 | 7 | -1 |
| 05 Jun. 2014 |
URU
2 - 0
SVN
78%
16%
7%
|
91 | 82 | 9 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2014 |
URU
1 - 0
NIR
84%
12%
4%
|
91 | 76 | 15 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2014 |
AUT
1 - 1
URU
24%
24%
53%
|
91 | 85 | 6 | 0 |