Italy vs USSR analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77.8%
Win probability
2.7
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.2%
5-0
3.7%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.2%
4-0
6.8%
5-1
2.9%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.2%
3-0
10.1%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.7%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.5%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.7%
13.9%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
6.5%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
13.9%
8.3%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
2.5%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.8%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul. 1966 |
PRK
1 - 0
ITA
37%
24%
39%
|
89 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 1966 |
SUN
1 - 0
ITA
56%
21%
23%
|
90 | 84 | 6 | -1 |
| 13 Jul. 1966 |
ITA
2 - 0
CHI
85%
10%
5%
|
90 | 78 | 12 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 1966 |
ITA
5 - 0
MEX
77%
14%
9%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | +1 |
| 22 Jun. 1966 |
ITA
3 - 0
ARG
62%
20%
18%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
USSR
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 1966 |
SUN
2 - 2
DDR
68%
18%
14%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1966 |
SUN
0 - 2
TUR
73%
16%
11%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1966 |
YUG
1 - 2
SUN
68%
18%
15%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 1966 |
POR
2 - 1
SUN
64%
19%
17%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 1966 |
BRD
2 - 1
SUN
74%
15%
11%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |