Italy vs Sweden analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.9%
Win probability
1.93
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.8%
3-0
9.5%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.6%
2-0
14.7%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.4%
1-0
15.2%
2-1
9%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.1%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
20.3%
10.8%
Win probability
0.61
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.2%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Oct. 1983 |
ITA
3 - 0
GRC
81%
15%
5%
|
91 | 72 | 19 | 0 |
| 29 May. 1983 |
SWE
2 - 0
ITA
30%
29%
41%
|
91 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1983 |
ROU
1 - 0
ITA
34%
28%
38%
|
92 | 84 | 8 | -1 |
| 12 Feb. 1983 |
CYP
1 - 1
ITA
6%
20%
75%
|
91 | 53 | 38 | +1 |
| 04 Dec. 1982 |
ITA
0 - 0
ROU
74%
18%
8%
|
92 | 84 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
Sweden
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 1983 |
SWE
1 - 0
CSK
44%
28%
28%
|
85 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 1983 |
FIN
0 - 3
SWE
21%
23%
56%
|
84 | 58 | 26 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 1983 |
ISL
0 - 4
SWE
13%
19%
68%
|
84 | 56 | 28 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 1983 |
SWE
3 - 3
BRA
17%
25%
57%
|
84 | 96 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 Jun. 1983 |
SWE
0 - 1
ROU
54%
26%
20%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |