Italy vs Sweden analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.5%
Win probability
2.05
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
6.6%
3-0
10.2%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.7%
2-0
14.9%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22%
1-0
14.6%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
18.8%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
18.8%
9.6%
Win probability
0.6
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.4%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.8%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jun. 1979 |
YUG
4 - 1
ITA
36%
28%
36%
|
92 | 86 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 May. 1979 |
ITA
2 - 2
ARG
57%
24%
19%
|
92 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 1979 |
ITA
3 - 0
NED
62%
23%
15%
|
91 | 88 | 3 | +1 |
| 21 Dec. 1978 |
ITA
1 - 0
ESP
61%
24%
16%
|
91 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 1978 |
CSK
3 - 0
ITA
44%
27%
30%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Sweden
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 1979 |
SWE
1 - 3
FRA
49%
26%
25%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 1979 |
NOR
2 - 0
SWE
15%
22%
63%
|
85 | 56 | 29 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 1979 |
SWE
2 - 0
NOR
82%
12%
6%
|
85 | 56 | 29 | 0 |
| 10 Jun. 1979 |
SWE
0 - 0
ENG
30%
27%
43%
|
85 | 92 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 1979 |
SWE
3 - 0
LUX
87%
10%
3%
|
85 | 42 | 43 | 0 |