Italy vs Romania analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.7%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.1%
+6
1%
5-0
2.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.9%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
7.2%
3-0
11.5%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
14.6%
2-0
16.7%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
<0%
+2
23%
1-0
16.2%
2-1
8%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
25.7%
17.8%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
1.9%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
17.8%
7.4%
Win probability
0.48
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
1.9%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
6%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May. 1976 |
BRA
4 - 1
ITA
59%
24%
17%
|
91 | 93 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 May. 1976 |
ENG
3 - 2
ITA
62%
22%
16%
|
91 | 91 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 May. 1976 |
USA
0 - 4
ITA
11%
23%
66%
|
91 | 58 | 33 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 1976 |
ITA
3 - 1
POR
73%
19%
9%
|
91 | 83 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 1975 |
ITA
3 - 2
GRC
80%
15%
5%
|
91 | 70 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
Romania
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May. 1976 |
BGR
1 - 0
ROU
58%
24%
18%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 1976 |
ROU
5 - 1
NED
89%
8%
3%
|
83 | 57 | 26 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1976 |
NED
0 - 3
ROU
18%
23%
59%
|
83 | 57 | 26 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1976 |
ROU
1 - 0
FRA
85%
10%
5%
|
82 | 63 | 19 | +1 |
| 17 Dec. 1975 |
SCO
1 - 1
ROU
62%
24%
15%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |