Italy vs Portugal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77.5%
Win probability
2.85
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1%
6-0
1.8%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.5%
5-0
3.7%
6-1
1.6%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.6%
4-0
6.5%
5-1
3.3%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.6%
3-0
9.1%
4-1
5.8%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.6%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.8%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.8%
13.5%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
6%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
13.5%
9%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6.3%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Dec. 1957 |
NIR
2 - 2
ITA
37%
24%
39%
|
86 | 65 | 21 | 0 |
| 26 May. 1957 |
POR
3 - 0
ITA
40%
24%
37%
|
87 | 71 | 16 | -1 |
| 12 May. 1957 |
YUG
6 - 1
ITA
51%
22%
27%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1957 |
ITA
1 - 0
NIR
83%
11%
6%
|
87 | 62 | 25 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 1956 |
ITA
2 - 1
AUT
68%
17%
15%
|
87 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Portugal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jun. 1957 |
BRA
3 - 0
POR
80%
13%
8%
|
72 | 87 | 15 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 1957 |
BRA
2 - 1
POR
80%
12%
8%
|
72 | 87 | 15 | 0 |
| 26 May. 1957 |
POR
3 - 0
ITA
40%
24%
37%
|
71 | 87 | 16 | +1 |
| 01 May. 1957 |
NIR
3 - 0
POR
40%
21%
39%
|
72 | 62 | 10 | -1 |
| 24 Mar. 1957 |
POR
0 - 1
FRA
50%
21%
29%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | 0 |