Italy vs Portugal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.2%
Win probability
2.49
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.4%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.4%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.4%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.4%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
17.5%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17.5%
15.3%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.8%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr. 1929 |
ITA
1 - 2
GER
63%
19%
19%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 1929 |
AUT
3 - 0
ITA
62%
19%
19%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | -1 |
| 03 Mar. 1929 |
ITA
4 - 2
CSK
52%
22%
26%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | +1 |
| 02 Dec. 1928 |
ITA
3 - 2
NED
57%
20%
22%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 1928 |
ITA
2 - 2
AUT
49%
22%
29%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Portugal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar. 1929 |
FRA
2 - 0
POR
44%
23%
34%
|
74 | 62 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 1929 |
ESP
5 - 0
POR
66%
18%
16%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | -1 |
| 03 Jun. 1928 |
EGY
2 - 1
POR
50%
22%
28%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | -1 |
| 29 May. 1928 |
YUG
1 - 2
POR
18%
22%
60%
|
76 | 19 | 57 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1928 |
POR
4 - 2
CHI
73%
16%
12%
|
75 | 60 | 15 | +1 |