Italy vs Poland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
81.7%
Win probability
2.99
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.5%
7-0
1%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.3%
6-0
2.3%
7-1
0.8%
8-2
0.1%
+6
3.2%
5-0
4.6%
6-1
1.8%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
6.7%
4-0
7.8%
5-1
3.6%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
12.1%
3-0
10.4%
4-1
6%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.9%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.1%
1-0
7%
2-1
8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.7%
11.7%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
5.4%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
11.7%
6.6%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
1.8%
1-2
2.1%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
4.8%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.4%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jun. 1965 |
HUN
2 - 1
ITA
75%
15%
10%
|
89 | 91 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 1965 |
FIN
0 - 2
ITA
30%
24%
47%
|
89 | 47 | 42 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 1965 |
SWE
2 - 2
ITA
58%
21%
22%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 May. 1965 |
ITA
4 - 1
WAL
82%
12%
6%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | +1 |
| 18 Apr. 1965 |
POL
0 - 0
ITA
31%
24%
44%
|
89 | 74 | 15 | -1 |
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 1965 |
POL
7 - 0
FIN
80%
13%
8%
|
74 | 51 | 23 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 1965 |
SCO
1 - 2
POL
69%
17%
13%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 1965 |
FIN
2 - 0
POL
35%
22%
43%
|
75 | 49 | 26 | -1 |
| 23 May. 1965 |
POL
1 - 1
SCO
35%
23%
42%
|
74 | 85 | 11 | +1 |
| 16 May. 1965 |
POL
1 - 1
BGR
59%
21%
21%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | 0 |