Italy vs Norway analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.6%
Win probability
2.98
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.8%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.5%
5-0
3%
6-1
1.8%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
5.3%
4-0
5.1%
5-1
3.6%
6-2
1.1%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
10%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
6%
5-2
2.1%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
0.1%
+3
15.5%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
3.6%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
19.6%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
4.8%
4-3
1.4%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.3%
14.3%
Draw
0-0
1.6%
1-1
5.5%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
14.3%
12.1%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
1.8%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
7.7%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May. 1938 |
ITA
4 - 0
YUG
81%
11%
8%
|
86 | 65 | 21 | 0 |
| 15 May. 1938 |
ITA
6 - 1
BEL
80%
12%
9%
|
86 | 63 | 23 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 1937 |
FRA
0 - 0
ITA
33%
24%
43%
|
86 | 64 | 22 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 1937 |
SUI
2 - 2
ITA
33%
23%
44%
|
86 | 61 | 25 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1937 |
NOR
1 - 3
ITA
44%
23%
33%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Norway
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May. 1938 |
NOR
1 - 0
EST
82%
11%
7%
|
74 | 57 | 17 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 1937 |
IRL
3 - 3
NOR
54%
20%
27%
|
74 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 1937 |
GER
3 - 0
NOR
71%
15%
14%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1937 |
NOR
3 - 2
IRL
66%
17%
17%
|
74 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 1937 |
NOR
3 - 2
SWE
49%
20%
31%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | +1 |