Italy vs Nigeria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.8%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.3%
4-0
5%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
6.1%
3-0
10.1%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.2%
2-0
15.6%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22%
1-0
16%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.1%
+1
26.3%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
2.4%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
19.7%
9.5%
Win probability
0.55
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
7.4%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov. 2013 |
ITA
1 - 1
GER
25%
23%
52%
|
93 | 95 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2013 |
ITA
2 - 2
ARM
83%
13%
3%
|
93 | 73 | 20 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2013 |
DEN
2 - 2
ITA
33%
27%
40%
|
93 | 90 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2013 |
ITA
2 - 1
CZE
59%
24%
17%
|
94 | 90 | 4 | -1 |
| 06 Sep. 2013 |
ITA
1 - 0
BGR
71%
19%
10%
|
93 | 86 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Nigeria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 2013 |
NGA
2 - 0
ETH
80%
14%
6%
|
86 | 61 | 25 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2013 |
JOR
1 - 0
NGA
26%
28%
47%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | -1 |
| 13 Oct. 2013 |
ETH
1 - 2
NGA
20%
28%
53%
|
87 | 62 | 25 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2013 |
NGA
4 - 1
BFA
75%
17%
8%
|
87 | 70 | 17 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2013 |
NGA
2 - 0
MWI
75%
17%
8%
|
87 | 64 | 23 | 0 |