Italy vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.9%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.2%
+3
9.6%
2-0
14.2%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
<0%
+2
19.4%
1-0
17.7%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.1%
+1
27.7%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
11%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
2.6%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
24.5%
13.6%
Win probability
0.6
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Dec. 1992 |
MLT
1 - 2
ITA
17%
31%
52%
|
95 | 57 | 38 | 0 |
| 18 Nov. 1992 |
SCO
0 - 0
ITA
31%
32%
37%
|
95 | 89 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 1992 |
ITA
2 - 2
SUI
67%
22%
11%
|
95 | 86 | 9 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 1992 |
NED
2 - 3
ITA
45%
30%
25%
|
95 | 92 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 1992 |
USA
1 - 1
ITA
23%
32%
45%
|
94 | 79 | 15 | +1 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 1992 |
CRO
3 - 0
MEX
26%
27%
48%
|
90 | 77 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 1992 |
GER
1 - 1
MEX
47%
25%
28%
|
90 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 1992 |
MEX
2 - 0
SLV
77%
18%
6%
|
89 | 69 | 20 | +1 |
| 26 Aug. 1992 |
ROU
2 - 0
MEX
47%
28%
25%
|
90 | 88 | 2 | -1 |
| 19 Aug. 1992 |
BGR
1 - 1
MEX
42%
29%
29%
|
90 | 85 | 5 | 0 |