Italy vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
80.2%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.8%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.2%
5-0
4%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5.2%
4-0
7.7%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.5%
3-0
11.9%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.4%
2-0
13.7%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
+2
22.4%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.3%
13.4%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
6.4%
2-2
2.5%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
13.4%
6.4%
Win probability
0.61
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
1.9%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jun. 1971 |
SWE
0 - 0
ITA
47%
25%
28%
|
91 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 May. 1971 |
IRL
1 - 2
ITA
25%
27%
48%
|
91 | 72 | 19 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 1971 |
ITA
1 - 2
ESP
72%
18%
11%
|
91 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 1970 |
ITA
3 - 0
IRL
84%
11%
5%
|
91 | 72 | 19 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 1970 |
AUT
1 - 2
ITA
34%
27%
39%
|
91 | 81 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 1971 |
YUG
4 - 0
MEX
70%
18%
12%
|
81 | 86 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1971 |
DDR
1 - 1
MEX
64%
20%
16%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1971 |
MAR
2 - 1
MEX
41%
26%
34%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1971 |
BRD
5 - 0
MEX
78%
14%
8%
|
81 | 89 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 1971 |
MEX
0 - 1
DDR
52%
25%
23%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | -1 |