Italy vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.9%
Win probability
2.78
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.3%
5-0
3.6%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.3%
4-0
6.4%
5-1
3.1%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.3%
3-0
9.2%
4-1
5.6%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.4%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
21%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.3%
13.9%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
13.9%
9.1%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6.4%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jun. 1966 |
ITA
3 - 0
ARG
62%
20%
18%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 1966 |
ITA
1 - 0
AUT
77%
14%
10%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | +1 |
| 14 Jun. 1966 |
ITA
6 - 1
BGR
81%
12%
7%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 1966 |
FRA
0 - 0
ITA
38%
25%
37%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 1965 |
ITA
3 - 0
SCO
68%
17%
15%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jun. 1966 |
NIR
4 - 1
MEX
46%
22%
32%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 1966 |
SUI
1 - 1
MEX
42%
23%
36%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
| 29 May. 1966 |
CHI
0 - 1
MEX
54%
21%
25%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 May. 1966 |
MEX
1 - 0
CHI
61%
20%
20%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | +1 |
| 24 Apr. 1966 |
MEX
7 - 0
PAR
58%
20%
22%
|
78 | 76 | 2 | 0 |