Italy vs Luxembourg analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.3%
Win probability
2.44
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.2%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.3%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.6%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22%
17.7%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.7%
15%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.7%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+19%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 May. 1924 |
ITA
1 - 0
ESP
45%
24%
31%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1924 |
HUN
7 - 1
ITA
71%
16%
13%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 1924 |
ITA
0 - 0
ESP
48%
23%
29%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 1924 |
ITA
0 - 4
AUT
57%
21%
22%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | -1 |
| 27 May. 1923 |
CSK
5 - 1
ITA
60%
20%
19%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Luxembourg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug. 1920 |
NED
3 - 0
LUX
84%
10%
6%
|
63 | 81 | 18 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1914 |
LUX
5 - 4
FRA
41%
23%
36%
|
62 | 71 | 9 | +1 |
| 20 Apr. 1913 |
FRA
8 - 0
LUX
69%
17%
14%
|
63 | 70 | 7 | -1 |
| 29 Oct. 1911 |
LUX
1 - 4
FRA
56%
20%
24%
|
64 | 65 | 1 | -1 |