Italy vs Lithuania analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.4%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.1%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
6.9%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
8%
3-0
13.2%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.2%
+3
15.8%
2-0
18.9%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
24.1%
1-0
18.1%
2-1
6.7%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
25.7%
16.4%
Draw
0-0
8.7%
1-1
6.4%
2-2
1.2%
3-3
0.1%
0
16.4%
5.2%
Win probability
0.36
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
1.1%
2-3
0.1%
-1
4.4%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.7%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug. 2006 |
ITA
0 - 2
CRO
64%
23%
13%
|
98 | 92 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2006 |
ITA
1 - 1
FRA
30%
26%
45%
|
98 | 100 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2006 |
GER
0 - 2
ITA
45%
24%
32%
|
98 | 96 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 2006 |
ITA
3 - 0
UKR
85%
12%
3%
|
98 | 87 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2006 |
ITA
1 - 0
AUS
77%
16%
7%
|
98 | 90 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Lithuania
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug. 2006 |
MDA
3 - 2
LTU
44%
26%
30%
|
73 | 71 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2006 |
POL
0 - 1
LTU
80%
15%
6%
|
72 | 91 | 19 | +1 |
| 01 Mar. 2006 |
ALB
1 - 2
LTU
50%
25%
25%
|
72 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2005 |
LTU
1 - 1
BEL
14%
23%
63%
|
71 | 92 | 21 | +1 |
| 08 Oct. 2005 |
LTU
0 - 2
SCG
31%
26%
43%
|
72 | 82 | 10 | -1 |