Italy vs Northern Ireland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.5%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.8%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.4%
4-0
5.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
6.5%
3-0
11.7%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.2%
+3
14%
2-0
18.3%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
23.3%
1-0
19.2%
2-1
7.1%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
27.2%
18.9%
Draw
0-0
10%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
1.4%
3-3
0.1%
0
18.9%
6.6%
Win probability
0.39
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
1.4%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
5.5%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr. 2009 |
ITA
1 - 1
IRL
60%
24%
16%
|
98 | 94 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 2009 |
MNE
0 - 2
ITA
6%
19%
75%
|
98 | 71 | 27 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2009 |
BRA
2 - 0
ITA
59%
23%
18%
|
99 | 99 | 0 | -1 |
| 19 Nov. 2008 |
GRC
1 - 1
ITA
24%
28%
48%
|
99 | 91 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2008 |
ITA
2 - 1
MNE
91%
7%
1%
|
99 | 70 | 29 | 0 |
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr. 2009 |
NIR
1 - 0
SVN
53%
27%
20%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 2009 |
NIR
3 - 2
POL
23%
26%
51%
|
85 | 92 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2009 |
SMR
0 - 3
NIR
15%
24%
61%
|
85 | 38 | 47 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2008 |
NIR
0 - 2
HUN
38%
27%
35%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2008 |
NIR
4 - 0
SMR
90%
8%
2%
|
85 | 38 | 47 | 0 |