Italy vs Hungary analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.2%
Win probability
3.01
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.8%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.4%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
1.8%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
5.2%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
3.6%
6-2
1.2%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
9.7%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
6%
5-2
2.3%
6-3
0.5%
7-4
0.1%
+3
15.1%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
8%
4-2
3.8%
5-3
1%
6-4
0.2%
7-5
<0%
+2
19.2%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
8%
3-2
5.1%
4-3
1.6%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.2%
14.6%
Draw
0-0
1.4%
1-1
5.3%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
14.5%
13.2%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
1.8%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
8.2%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 1947 |
ITA
5 - 2
SUI
84%
10%
6%
|
88 | 71 | 17 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 1946 |
ITA
3 - 2
AUT
71%
15%
14%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 1945 |
SUI
4 - 4
ITA
34%
23%
43%
|
88 | 71 | 17 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1942 |
ITA
4 - 0
ESP
72%
15%
13%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1942 |
ITA
4 - 0
CRO
79%
13%
9%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Hungary
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 1947 |
HUN
5 - 2
AUT
62%
17%
20%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 1946 |
LUX
2 - 7
HUN
28%
21%
52%
|
82 | 57 | 25 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 1946 |
HUN
2 - 0
AUT
57%
19%
24%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 1946 |
AUT
3 - 2
HUN
59%
19%
22%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 1945 |
HUN
7 - 2
ROU
79%
12%
9%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | 0 |