Italy vs Hungary analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.3%
Win probability
2.77
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
2%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
0.1%
+5
3.8%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
2.9%
6-2
1%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
7.7%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
2.1%
6-3
0.5%
7-4
0.1%
+3
13.1%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
3.8%
5-3
1%
6-4
0.2%
7-5
<0%
+2
18.2%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
5.5%
4-3
1.8%
5-4
0.4%
6-5
<0%
+1
20%
16.7%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.7%
5-5
0.1%
6-6
<0%
0
16.7%
18%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
10.4%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar. 1937 |
AUT
2 - 0
ITA
58%
20%
23%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Dec. 1936 |
ITA
2 - 0
CSK
71%
16%
14%
|
86 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 1936 |
GER
2 - 2
ITA
53%
21%
26%
|
86 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 1936 |
ITA
4 - 2
SUI
82%
11%
7%
|
86 | 64 | 22 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 1936 |
ITA
2 - 1
AUT
57%
19%
24%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Hungary
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr. 1937 |
SUI
1 - 5
HUN
33%
21%
46%
|
80 | 62 | 18 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 1936 |
NED
2 - 3
HUN
52%
20%
28%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 1936 |
ENG
6 - 2
HUN
59%
19%
22%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 1936 |
ROU
1 - 2
HUN
45%
20%
34%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1936 |
HUN
5 - 3
AUT
49%
20%
31%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | +1 |