Italy vs France analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.8%
Win probability
3.15
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.5%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.2%
6-0
1.8%
7-1
0.9%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
3%
5-0
3.3%
6-1
2.1%
7-2
0.6%
8-3
0.1%
+5
6.1%
4-0
5.3%
5-1
4%
6-2
1.3%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
10.8%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
6.4%
5-2
2.4%
6-3
0.5%
7-4
0.1%
+3
16.1%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
3.8%
5-3
1%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
19.4%
1-0
4.1%
2-1
7.7%
3-2
4.8%
4-3
1.5%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.5%
13.2%
Draw
0-0
1.3%
1-1
4.9%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
13.2%
11%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
1.6%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
7%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jun. 1938 |
ITA
2 - 1
NOR
74%
14%
12%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | 0 |
| 22 May. 1938 |
ITA
4 - 0
YUG
81%
11%
8%
|
86 | 64 | 22 | 0 |
| 15 May. 1938 |
ITA
6 - 1
BEL
80%
12%
9%
|
86 | 63 | 23 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 1937 |
FRA
0 - 0
ITA
33%
24%
43%
|
86 | 63 | 23 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 1937 |
SUI
2 - 2
ITA
33%
23%
44%
|
86 | 60 | 26 | 0 |
Matches
France
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jun. 1938 |
FRA
3 - 1
BEL
58%
19%
24%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 May. 1938 |
FRA
2 - 4
ENG
28%
21%
51%
|
66 | 84 | 18 | -1 |
| 24 Mar. 1938 |
FRA
6 - 1
BGR
57%
19%
24%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | +1 |
| 30 Jan. 1938 |
FRA
5 - 3
BEL
59%
19%
22%
|
64 | 62 | 2 | +1 |
| 05 Dec. 1937 |
FRA
0 - 0
ITA
33%
24%
43%
|
63 | 86 | 23 | +1 |