Italy vs France analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.9%
Win probability
3.11
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.5%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.2%
6-0
1.9%
7-1
0.9%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
3%
5-0
3.6%
6-1
2%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
6.2%
4-0
5.8%
5-1
4%
6-2
1.1%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
11.1%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
6.4%
5-2
2.2%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
0.1%
+3
16.4%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3.5%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.6%
13%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
5.1%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
13%
10%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
1.6%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
6.6%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jun. 1930 |
ITA
2 - 3
ESP
59%
20%
21%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 May. 1930 |
HUN
0 - 5
ITA
60%
19%
20%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | +1 |
| 06 Apr. 1930 |
NED
1 - 1
ITA
53%
22%
26%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 1930 |
GER
0 - 2
ITA
54%
21%
25%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 1930 |
ITA
4 - 2
SUI
76%
14%
10%
|
79 | 63 | 16 | +1 |
Matches
France
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Dec. 1930 |
FRA
2 - 2
BEL
44%
22%
34%
|
59 | 70 | 11 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 1930 |
BRA
3 - 2
FRA
72%
15%
13%
|
60 | 77 | 17 | -1 |
| 19 Jul. 1930 |
CHI
1 - 0
FRA
53%
20%
26%
|
60 | 64 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 1930 |
ARG
1 - 0
FRA
65%
19%
16%
|
61 | 84 | 23 | -1 |
| 13 Jul. 1930 |
FRA
4 - 1
MEX
37%
23%
40%
|
58 | 74 | 16 | +3 |