Italy vs France analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.2%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.2%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.8%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.8%
1-0
6%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.4%
17.8%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
17.8%
17.2%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.5%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan. 1925 |
ITA
1 - 2
HUN
45%
23%
32%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 1924 |
GER
0 - 1
ITA
52%
22%
26%
|
74 | 71 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Nov. 1924 |
ITA
2 - 2
SWE
47%
23%
30%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 1924 |
SUI
2 - 1
ITA
54%
22%
24%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | -1 |
| 29 May. 1924 |
ITA
2 - 0
LUX
67%
18%
15%
|
74 | 63 | 11 | +1 |
Matches
France
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 1924 |
BEL
3 - 0
FRA
70%
16%
15%
|
64 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 1924 |
FRA
0 - 1
HUN
34%
24%
43%
|
65 | 80 | 15 | -1 |
| 01 Jun. 1924 |
FRA
1 - 5
URU
31%
23%
47%
|
66 | 80 | 14 | -1 |
| 27 May. 1924 |
FRA
7 - 0
LVA
47%
23%
30%
|
63 | 70 | 7 | +3 |
| 17 May. 1924 |
FRA
1 - 3
ENG
30%
23%
47%
|
64 | 82 | 18 | -1 |