Italy vs France analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.5%
Win probability
2.33
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.1%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.9%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.5%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22%
19%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19%
18.5%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.4%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan. 1915 |
ITA
3 - 1
SUI
65%
18%
16%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 May. 1914 |
SUI
0 - 1
ITA
55%
21%
24%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1914 |
ITA
1 - 1
SUI
65%
19%
17%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 1914 |
ITA
2 - 0
FRA
58%
20%
22%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 Jan. 1914 |
ITA
0 - 0
AUT
60%
20%
20%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
France
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar. 1919 |
BEL
2 - 2
FRA
74%
14%
12%
|
70 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 31 May. 1914 |
HUN
5 - 1
FRA
76%
14%
11%
|
71 | 79 | 8 | -1 |
| 29 Mar. 1914 |
ITA
2 - 0
FRA
58%
20%
22%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | -1 |
| 08 Mar. 1914 |
FRA
2 - 2
SUI
64%
19%
18%
|
72 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1914 |
LUX
5 - 4
FRA
41%
23%
36%
|
72 | 63 | 9 | 0 |