Italy vs France analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.8%
Win probability
2.22
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.1%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.5%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.3%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
20.1%
22.1%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan. 1914 |
ITA
0 - 0
AUT
60%
20%
20%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 1913 |
AUT
2 - 0
ITA
64%
18%
18%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | -1 |
| 01 May. 1913 |
ITA
1 - 0
BEL
48%
22%
30%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 1913 |
FRA
1 - 0
ITA
52%
22%
27%
|
73 | 69 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 1912 |
ITA
1 - 3
AUT
66%
18%
16%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
France
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 1914 |
FRA
2 - 2
SUI
64%
19%
18%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1914 |
LUX
5 - 4
FRA
41%
23%
36%
|
71 | 62 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1914 |
FRA
4 - 3
BEL
44%
23%
33%
|
71 | 78 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1913 |
FRA
8 - 0
LUX
69%
17%
14%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | +1 |
| 09 Mar. 1913 |
SUI
1 - 4
FRA
63%
18%
19%
|
69 | 70 | 1 | +1 |