Italy vs France analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.9%
Win probability
2.75
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.9%
5-0
2.7%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.4%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
3%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
8.8%
3-0
7%
4-1
5.5%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.7%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
3.2%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.7%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.5%
15.7%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
6.4%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
15.7%
13.4%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
8.5%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 May. 1911 |
SUI
3 - 0
ITA
58%
20%
22%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1911 |
ITA
2 - 2
SUI
65%
18%
17%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1911 |
FRA
2 - 2
ITA
44%
23%
33%
|
75 | 67 | 8 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 1911 |
ITA
0 - 1
HUN
63%
18%
19%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | -1 |
| 26 May. 1910 |
HUN
6 - 1
ITA
54%
21%
25%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
France
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 1912 |
FRA
4 - 1
SUI
48%
22%
30%
|
67 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1912 |
FRA
1 - 1
BEL
38%
23%
39%
|
66 | 77 | 11 | +1 |
| 29 Oct. 1911 |
LUX
1 - 4
FRA
56%
20%
24%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | +1 |
| 30 Apr. 1911 |
BEL
7 - 1
FRA
79%
12%
9%
|
66 | 76 | 10 | -1 |
| 23 Apr. 1911 |
SUI
5 - 2
FRA
71%
16%
14%
|
67 | 73 | 6 | -1 |