Italy vs United States analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.7%
Win probability
2.72
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.8%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.2%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
3%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
8.5%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
5.4%
5-2
1.8%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.3%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
8%
4-2
3.2%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.5%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
4.8%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.5%
16%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
6.5%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
16%
14.3%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar. 1934 |
ITA
4 - 0
GRC
77%
13%
10%
|
83 | 68 | 15 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 1934 |
ITA
2 - 4
AUT
52%
20%
28%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 1933 |
ITA
5 - 2
CHE
79%
12%
9%
|
83 | 62 | 21 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 1933 |
HUN
0 - 1
ITA
57%
20%
23%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 May. 1933 |
ITA
1 - 1
ENG
51%
20%
29%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
United States
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 1930 |
BRA
4 - 3
USA
60%
20%
20%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 1930 |
ARG
6 - 1
USA
58%
22%
20%
|
76 | 85 | 9 | -1 |
| 17 Jul. 1930 |
USA
3 - 0
PRY
66%
18%
16%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 1930 |
USA
3 - 0
BEL
58%
20%
22%
|
75 | 71 | 4 | +1 |
| 10 Jun. 1928 |
POL
3 - 3
USA
56%
21%
23%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | 0 |