Italy vs Spain analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.9%
Win probability
1.8
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.3%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.5%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.7%
23%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23%
29.1%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.4%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.3%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan. 1924 |
ITA
0 - 4
AUT
57%
21%
22%
|
75 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1923 |
CSK
5 - 1
ITA
60%
20%
19%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | -1 |
| 15 Apr. 1923 |
AUT
0 - 0
ITA
61%
20%
20%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 1923 |
ITA
0 - 0
HUN
49%
22%
29%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1923 |
ITA
3 - 1
GER
60%
19%
21%
|
75 | 71 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Dec. 1923 |
ESP
3 - 0
POR
63%
19%
18%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1923 |
BEL
1 - 0
ESP
57%
21%
23%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 1923 |
ESP
3 - 0
FRA
68%
17%
15%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 1922 |
POR
1 - 2
ESP
50%
23%
28%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 1922 |
FRA
0 - 4
ESP
44%
23%
32%
|
79 | 69 | 10 | +1 |