Italy vs Denmark analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
79.2%
Win probability
2.93
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.1%
6-0
2%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.8%
5-0
4%
6-1
1.7%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
6.1%
4-0
6.9%
5-1
3.5%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
11.2%
3-0
9.4%
4-1
6%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.1%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.9%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.3%
12.7%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
5.7%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
12.7%
8%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
1.9%
1-2
2.5%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
5.7%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.8%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov. 1964 |
ITA
6 - 1
FIN
84%
11%
5%
|
88 | 47 | 41 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 1964 |
POL
0 - 1
ITA
30%
24%
46%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
| 10 May. 1964 |
SUI
1 - 3
ITA
29%
24%
48%
|
88 | 65 | 23 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1964 |
ITA
0 - 0
CSK
70%
17%
13%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 1964 |
ITA
7 - 1
TUR
78%
14%
8%
|
88 | 73 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Denmark
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec. 1964 |
ISR
0 - 1
DEN
49%
22%
29%
|
76 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Nov. 1964 |
GRC
4 - 2
DEN
35%
21%
44%
|
76 | 65 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 1964 |
DEN
1 - 0
WAL
64%
18%
18%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 1964 |
DEN
2 - 0
NOR
74%
14%
12%
|
76 | 65 | 11 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 1964 |
FIN
2 - 1
DEN
31%
21%
47%
|
76 | 46 | 30 | 0 |