Italy vs Bulgaria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
79%
Win probability
2.27
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
3.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
<0%
+5
3.9%
4-0
7.3%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
8.9%
3-0
12.9%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
16.5%
2-0
17%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23.5%
1-0
15%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
24%
15.2%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
1.7%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
15.2%
5.8%
Win probability
0.45
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
1.5%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
4.7%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.9%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jun. 1978 |
BRA
2 - 1
ITA
65%
19%
16%
|
91 | 94 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 1978 |
NED
2 - 1
ITA
53%
23%
24%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | -1 |
| 18 Jun. 1978 |
ITA
1 - 0
AUT
77%
14%
9%
|
92 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 1978 |
BRD
0 - 0
ITA
68%
18%
15%
|
92 | 92 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Jun. 1978 |
ITA
1 - 0
ARG
65%
19%
16%
|
91 | 90 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Bulgaria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug. 1978 |
DDR
2 - 2
BGR
71%
19%
9%
|
80 | 89 | 9 | 0 |
| 31 May. 1978 |
BGR
1 - 1
ROU
51%
26%
23%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 May. 1978 |
ROU
2 - 0
BGR
67%
20%
13%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1978 |
POL
1 - 0
BGR
75%
17%
9%
|
80 | 87 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1978 |
CSK
0 - 0
BGR
74%
17%
9%
|
80 | 87 | 7 | 0 |