Italy vs Bulgaria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
80.9%
Win probability
2.92
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.9%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.2%
6-0
2.2%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.9%
5-0
4.4%
6-1
1.7%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
6.4%
4-0
7.6%
5-1
3.4%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
11.7%
3-0
10.4%
4-1
5.8%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.7%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.2%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.2%
12.2%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
5.6%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
12.2%
6.9%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
1.9%
1-2
2.2%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
5.1%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.5%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 1966 |
FRA
0 - 0
ITA
38%
25%
37%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 1965 |
ITA
3 - 0
SCO
68%
17%
15%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 1965 |
SCO
1 - 0
ITA
43%
24%
32%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1965 |
ITA
6 - 1
POL
82%
12%
7%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | +1 |
| 27 Jun. 1965 |
HUN
2 - 1
ITA
75%
15%
10%
|
89 | 91 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Bulgaria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 1966 |
YUG
0 - 2
BGR
78%
13%
9%
|
77 | 86 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1966 |
EGY
2 - 2
BGR
55%
22%
23%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 1965 |
BGR
2 - 1
BEL
47%
23%
29%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 1965 |
ISR
1 - 2
BGR
47%
24%
29%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | +1 |
| 27 Oct. 1965 |
BEL
5 - 0
BGR
58%
21%
21%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | -1 |