Italy vs Brazil analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.5%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.3%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.3%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.7%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.2%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.7%
29.9%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
7.3%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.3%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 1973 |
ITA
5 - 0
LUX
95%
4%
1%
|
90 | 48 | 42 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1973 |
TUR
0 - 1
ITA
22%
27%
52%
|
90 | 70 | 20 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 1973 |
ITA
0 - 0
TUR
85%
11%
4%
|
91 | 69 | 22 | -1 |
| 21 Oct. 1972 |
SUI
0 - 0
ITA
25%
27%
48%
|
90 | 72 | 18 | +1 |
| 07 Oct. 1972 |
LUX
0 - 4
ITA
21%
24%
55%
|
90 | 47 | 43 | 0 |
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jun. 1973 |
TUN
1 - 4
BRA
4%
13%
83%
|
92 | 65 | 27 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 1973 |
ALG
0 - 2
BRA
5%
15%
81%
|
92 | 71 | 21 | 0 |
| 27 May. 1973 |
BRA
5 - 0
BOL
94%
5%
1%
|
92 | 65 | 27 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 1972 |
IRN
1 - 0
BRA
31%
25%
44%
|
92 | 72 | 20 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 1972 |
HUN
2 - 2
BRA
58%
20%
22%
|
92 | 91 | 1 | 0 |