Italy vs Brazil analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.6%
Win probability
2.33
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.4%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.7%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.1%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.6%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.8%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.5%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
19.3%
21.1%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.8%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 1956 |
ITA
2 - 0
FRA
74%
15%
12%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 1955 |
ITA
2 - 1
GER
62%
18%
20%
|
87 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 1955 |
HUN
2 - 0
ITA
84%
10%
6%
|
87 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 May. 1955 |
ITA
0 - 4
YUG
68%
17%
16%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | -1 |
| 30 Mar. 1955 |
GER
1 - 2
ITA
63%
18%
19%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr. 1956 |
CSK
0 - 0
BRA
43%
22%
36%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1956 |
AUT
2 - 3
BRA
53%
20%
27%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1956 |
SUI
1 - 1
BRA
37%
22%
41%
|
87 | 71 | 16 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 1956 |
POR
0 - 1
BRA
35%
22%
43%
|
87 | 71 | 16 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 1956 |
ARG
2 - 2
BRA
62%
19%
19%
|
87 | 90 | 3 | 0 |